Geopolitics of Space: ASAT and Nuclear Test
• Dr. Devender Kumar
The geopolitical competition between states has now reached space. Recently, Russia vetoed the joint UNSC resolution by the US and Japan to maintain the ban on testing of WMD in space, as outlined in the Outer Space Treaty 1967. The New York Times reports that the Biden administration notified Congress and European partners about ‘Russian advances in space’ and believes that Russia is designing a ‘space-based nuclear weapon to threaten the USA’s extensive satellite network.’ The US is anxious about Russia's possible usage of a nuclear anti-satellite weapon.
There are nearly 10,000 active satellites in outer space, and 77 space agencies are active worldwide. It is estimated that the number of satellites in orbit will grow in the future. The US acts as the sole power in the sector, with 3415 satellites in orbit, followed by Russia with 170, China with 535, the UK with 486, and India with 59.
While the increase in the number of satellites is good for humankind, these platforms attract strategic competition for advantage in space. A majority of these launch countries are opting for Anti-Satellite (ASAT) technology, which has increased the possibility of the weaponization of space.
ASAT capability is any technology that destroys or harms a satellite in orbit, thereby limiting usage in space. The destruction can be done in two ways: (a) kinetic, which involves physical destruction by an explosion near the satellite; or (b) non-kinetic, which damages the C3 (Command & Control Center) of satellites, causing collisions with other satellites. Lasers and cyber-attacks are also used to blind satellites.
Countries use ASAT to destroy the space capability of other states for strategic advantage in military, economic, technical, and civilian areas. Military uses satellites for navigation, communication, intelligence, meteorology, surveillance, and reconnaissance. Big companies use satellites for banking transactions, data, and communication, while civilians depend on satellites for calls, navigation, and television services. Satellites also have environmental and agricultural uses, such as monitoring crops, detecting threats to harvests, and helping governments respond to natural disasters.
Four countries possess ASAT capabilities: the USA, Russia, China, and India. The US was the frontrunner in this technology and conducted its first test in the 1950s. The US has two major systems: (a) exo-atmospheric defense against incoming missiles and satellites; and (b) targeting satellites at low orbit. The latter technology is equipped in ships deployed worldwide by the US Navy.
China has developed ASAT capabilities to target its adversaries’ space-based assets. China's activities have prompted several concerns about its ambition to challenge US space dominance. During a 2007 test, China launched a missile that collided with an old weather satellite 800km above the Earth’s surface, leaving thousands of pieces of debris in space, which continue to pose a threat to other satellites.
Russia has recently launched ASAT tests that target American satellites and is expected to continue testing ASAT systems despite strong objections from the international community. India too has demonstrated its ASAT capability, becoming the fourth country to do so. India successfully destroyed a satellite using a missile fired from Earth during Mission Shakti in 2019. This made India a dominant player in the military use of space, although the demonstration prompted concerns about the proliferation of debris in space.
Dr. Devender Kumar is a Senior Research Fellow at the Center of Excellence for Geopolitics and International Studies (CEGIS), REVA University, Bengaluru.
